Have We Stopped Inventing Futures Worth Predicting?
Robert Sapolsky argues that everything is deterministic, but I wonder if human unpredictability comes from our rare ability to act outside of incentive structures—choosing struggle, chaos, and creative risk even when it makes no sense.
We already have the science and technology to tackle existential challenges—climate change, AI risk, even human longevity—but nobody seems to believe the future will be better than the present. Dystopia is the default narrative, and this nihilism has killed the moonshot culture that defined the early 20th century. Instead of building the 22nd century in 2030, we’re stuck in incrementalism.
Where are the orbital solar power stations? The permanent Moon bases? The AIs designed to elevate us rather than pacify us? These ideas feel like science fiction only because no one is crazy enough to try.
Alan Kay said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. Maybe the real “veil of computability” - our blind spot - is that we’ve stopped imagining futures worth predicting.
Question: What would a new moonshot culture look like today—and who’s still crazy enough to build it?
I think about this a lot actually. I was playing No Man's Sky this weekend, hoping between galaxy's and was thinking about how we aren't even on a path to making something like that possible. I think the show "For All Mankind" kind of gives us a glimpse if we (I am an American) didn't run out of ambition and had competition to build it. But since everything is/was government funded, it's all very precarious.
A lot of what is being built now is because it's what can be funded, and in turn make a profit for the funders. Here is something I'd love to see that I dont think has the ROI yet to attract the money but solar panels over parking lots. Parking lots are ugly, so who cares if you make them uglier; they aren't often shaded so little tree cover to contend with, and there is _so_ much of it around America. A step towards the future would be to get companies and cities on board with putting up solar panels over parking lots. It creates shade, harnesses energy, and puts a massive space to better use. That feels like its would be a solid step into the future. If this is proven to be successful, like I think it would be, then who knows what the next step would be.
My local library and the nearby highschool both have solar panels over the parking lot. They certainly exist. I suppose the ROI they've had would be interesting (although this is in Massachusetts so not exactly the solar capital of the world as far as potential is concerned).
I do like them though. Gives both shade and (some) rain cover.
We probably need a credible chance of an extinction level event for that to happen